The effect of climate variables on the incidence of Crimean ... | crimeancongo hemorrhagic fever

The Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Iran and has a high fatality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the ...SkiptomaincontentAdvertisementSearchallBMCarticlesSearchDownloadPDFResearcharticleOpenAccessPublished:09December2020TheeffectofclimatevariablesontheincidenceofCrimeanCongoHemorrhagicFever(CCHF)inZahedan,IranSairanNili1,NargesKhanjani2,YunesJahani3&BahramBakhtiari4 BMCPublicHealthvolume 20,Article number: 1893(2020)Citethisarticle582AccessesMetricsdetailsAbstractBackgroundTheCrimean-CongoHemorrhagicfever(CCHF)isendemicinIranandhasahighfatalityrate.TheaimofthisstudywastoinvestigatetheassociationbetweenCCHFincidenceandmeteorologicalvariablesinZahedandistrict,whichhasahighincidenceofthisdisease.MethodsDataaboutmeteorologicalvariablesandCCHFincidencewasinquiredfrom2010to2017forZahedandistrict.TheanalysiswasperformedusingunivariateandmultivariateSeasonalAutoregressiveIntegratedMovingAverage(SARIMA)modelsandGeneralizedAdditiveModels(GAM)usingRsoftware.AIC,BICandresidualtestswereusedtotestthegoodnessoffitofSARIMAmodels,andR2wasusedtoselectthebestmodelinGAM/GAMM.ResultsDuringtheyearsunderstudy,190confirmedcasesofCCHFwereidentifiedinZahedandistrict.Thefatalityrateofthediseasewas8.42%.Thediseasetrendfollowedaseasonalpattern.TheresultsofmultivariateSARIMAshowedthe(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12modelwithmaximummonthlytemperaturelagged5 months,forecastedthediseasebetterthanothermodels.IntheGAM,monthlyaveragetemperaturelagged5 months,andthemonthlyminimumofrelativehumidityandtotalmonthlyrainfallwithoutlag,hadanonlinearrelationwiththeincidenceofCCHF.ConclusionsMeteorologicalvariablescanaffectCCHFoccurrence.PeerReviewreportsBackgroundCrimean-Congohemorrhagicfever(CCHF)isaviraldiseasewithaworldwidedistribution[1].Itistransmittedbyticksorthroughcontactwithinfectedanimaltissue.ThemostimportantrouteofCCHFtransmissioninIraniscontactwiththebloodortissuesofinfecteddomesticanimals.Thelengthofincubationperioddependsontheviralload,therouteoftransmission,andthesourceofinf

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The effect of climate variables on the incidence of Crimean ... | crimeancongo hemorrhagic fever
The Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in Iran and has a high fatality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the ...
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